Treat Scientific Studies Like Tarot Cards

In 2023, more than 10,000 research papers were retracted. According to Nature, “Integrity experts say that this is only the tip of the iceberg.” Stories about fraud, sloppiness, and bad incentives in the scientific community are suddenly appearing everywhere—in the NYT, the Atlantic, Freakanomics Radio, etc. And that’s without mentioning the replication crisis. At this point it seems safe to say that any given study should be taken with at least some measure of skepticism.

Despite this, reviews of scientific studies are as fascinating as ever to read. Which makes them impossible to avoid online. Anyone who reads the New York Post, for example, will see a stream of articles each week about various exciting new findings in diet, medicine, and psychology.

I don’t want to argue that we should stop consuming articles about scientific studies. Rather, my view is that we should look at them differently. When we encounter a one-off scientific study online, we shouldn’t think we learned some new piece of data about reality. Instead, we should use the study as an opportunity to reflect on the subject matter broadly, consider what we know about the topic, and consider how we might change our behavior whether or not the study happens to be true.

In other words: we should treat scientific studies like tarot cards. Although this might sound like a joke (and perhaps it is in part), consider:

The global tarot card market is valued at 1.3 billion annually. That means, a lot of people find some value from tarot. Notably, these people aren’t all woo-embracing bubbleheads. They’re largely well-adjusted adults who accept some normal view of reality and understand that tarot is essentially a fun mental exercise.

According to Lori Dyan, a tarot reader and author interviewed by Vogue, “Tarot is not future-telling, it’s coaching.” And tarot cards are “a tool for personal discovery and self-care.”

In practice, a tarot-reading person might explain it like this: “I’m going to read what my cards say today and ruminate on it. And maybe it will open up some new ideas and thoughts about life.”

For example, one might see the Chariot card, which is a card about overcoming obstacles, maintaining self-control, and moving forward in a positive direction. Seeing the card might cause one to reminisce on an argument they had with their partner last night. They might be prompted to think, “If I were to get over this conflict and move in a positive direction, what might that look like?”

This is the same way we should be reading articles about research papers. For example, the New York Post recently covered a study claiming that a smaller social circle is better for your health. Given what we know about one-off research studies, there’s a good chance this study’s data is misrepresented, fabricated, or taken from a sample of people who don’t represent the general public. Or even if the data is perfect, there’s a very good chance the study will fail to replicate for whatever reason. But that does not mean we should totally ignore the study. Instead, think of the New York Post article about the study as a tarot card. Read the article and then (forgetting the veracity of the underlying study) ask yourself: How do I feel about the size of my own social circle? If I were to change my social circle in some way to improve my life, would I add more friends, or would I focus on seeing my closest friends more often?

This simple reflection may incite you to call up a friend for a drink tonight. Or you may think about sending an email to an old friend from college you haven’t heard from in years. All the while, it doesn’t even matter if the underlying study is true or not.

This process works for almost any type of study. For example, studies about diet often conflict and there’s wide disagreement about whether certain foods are healthy or not. But if you read any given study as a tarot card, you basically can’t go wrong in that the study will prompt you to reflect on your own eating habits. We all secretly know when we’ve been overindulging in something that’s clearly not healthy (donuts, french fries, etc.), and reflecting on any study about diet may help us shift our habits.

Try it next time you stumble across a too-good-to-be-true study online. Don’t just roll your eyes and keep scrolling. Think of it as a chance to do your daily tarot reading. Maybe the study will open up some new ideas and thoughts about your life. Worst case scenario, you’ll no doubt be mildly entertained.